Friday, November 19, 2010

Roubini speaks


Roubini today spoke about the sovereign debt crisis road map going forward. To a great extent I agree with him. One point I think he fails to embrace is the propensity of troubled governments to engage in as much quantitative easing as it takes to keep this wretched system afloat for as long as possible. Regardless, you can read his piece here

Summary:
Many PIIGS states are in trouble. Super sovereign entities such as the IMF and ECB will attempt to 'socialize the losses' by bailing them out. This can have severe repercussions because the risk is then transferred to these super sovereign entities, and the can is only kicked down the road. Once the day of reckoning comes and its time to pay the piper, theses entities go bust as they become insolvent. Necessary austerity measures will prove extremely difficult to implement if the riots in France are any indication of what the consequences can look like. Spain is too big to fail and too big to bail.

My take: Europe is doomed.

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