Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Martin Armstrong on smart money

Have gotten hooked onto the writings on "#1 political prisoner" Martin Armstrong. I have always wondered why people point to a rising gold price as a "warning signal". The reason for this, as laid out by Armstrong, is that smart money always forms the primary trend through its very acute sense of forecasting what is to come. It piles into 'quality' assets that will ultimately be the most appropriate investment for what is to come. So the argument goes that gold is rising because it is foretelling a major crisis ahead of us.

Then what, one might ask, can we discern from gold rising right before it peaks? If the economy were the start rebuilding right after gold peaks, are we to assume that the last parabolic phase in gold failed to foretell this in spite of a rising gold price? No! The reason for the last phase of gold's rise is the dumb money. They are the last to arrive and the first to get slaughtered. Their piling in will help drive the price to the moon, but it is too late, for the smart money, that got in and started the trend when gold begun its rise from $250, was the original and early forecaster of what was to come.

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