Gold triangle wedge result

Result was a downside move

Significant breakout from triangle wedge coming in gold

BPT breaches resistance

HUI long term floors and resistance

Nasdaq (QQQ) Resistance at 58

Eli Lilly (LLY) breakout from ceiling 11/8/11

Brent Crude Breakout 11/7/11

Natural Gas upside breakout from downward channel

Oil breakout from channel?

HUI Index consolidation followed by breakout/breakdown pattern

Gold mining senior sector has always shown a pattern of consolidations before up moves/breakdowns. Such a move should follow the current consolidation.

GDX bouncing off support

Gold hits strong support

Let's see if the level can be maintained (green line)

Has gold bottomed?

Oil historically cheap measured in real money (gold)

Oil has historically found firm support around the 0.03-0.04 ounces/barrel level, which has been considered to deem it "cheap" or "undervalued" compared when measured in gold. An opportunity might be approaching soon for oil to start outperforming gold from these levels.

GDX breakout above 63 level still holds

GDX BREAKOUT?!

Very strong chance the large cap miners (GDX) have broken out to the upside of their year long consolidation pattern. If this move is for real, expect an explosive upside move.

SIL, GDX, AGQ

As of today, buying SIL, GDX, AGQ

Euro triangle wedge formation

Gold channel broken to the upside

Updated chart from May. Notice gold has broken above the channel.

When will gold be overvalued?

Not now. But it will be time to rethink gold when:
1) there is a dot-com style bubble mania
2) Governments get their act together and introduce fiscal and monetary responsibility
3) Gold gets reintroduced into the monetary system

Gold going parabolic?

Gold 2001-present trendlines

When to own gold vs. when to own paper assets

Graph is self explanatory

Bought into Euro call option

Bought $46 strike FXE (euro ETF) call options expiring September '11. Euro broke out of wedge pattern today (7/26/11)

USD oscillating. Watch for breakout or breakdown

Bridgewater Associates Ray Dalio quote

“It’s always a matter of controlling risk. Risky things are not in themselves risky if you understand them and control them. If you do it randomly and you are sloppy about it, it can be very risky.”- Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates Hedge Fund

Gold consolidation and explosion patterns over last 7 years

Pattern repeats continually. Internal energy buildup is reflected in the jagged sideways movements (boxed areas) and is followed by the next leg up.

Silver call options

Bought some SLV calls expiring January 2012 with $45 strike today. Pattern looks like a firm bottom with strong possibility of an up-move

Bert Seligman words of wisdom

“Men who can be both right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make the big money.”- Bert Seligman

Clorox- Classic example of a breakout through firm ceiling

A three year ceiling at $60 resulted in a sharp breakout propelling CLX from 60 to 75 in just over a year

GDX and GDXJ consolidation

Consolidations and base-building like this have generally been a precursor to a breakout move. The most recent base-building, in relation to the prior one, is long and drawn out, which typically would signify a very strong breakout when it happens.

Bought back into silver, gold, senior and junior miners yesterday 7/12/11

A turnaround and possible breakout from the consolidation seems very possible.

Shanghai Composite- break of 5 year support will be significant

HUI index possibly turning around, bouncing off firm support

Gold uptrend October 2008 channel intact

Silver uptrend intact- Firm support at $34

Jim Sinclair Post- Gold Price + US International Balance Sheet

Little by little, I am passing on ALL that I have learned from Jesse through Bert and Bert's knowledge to those that read here, every day, in thanks for your support of me and mine. --JEBS (James Edwin Bertram Sinclair)

Assumption:

Because gold is held by many central banks, once as a reserve currency but now as an inventory currency, it functions as a swing asset to balance the International Balance sheet of the US.

Central banks are sellers of dollars but still hold, by default, large dollar inventories.

China has hedged its dollar position 50% through commitments to long term dollar commercial agreements, pay in, mineral, and energy deals internationally. That is an act of pure genius.

We can assume other central banks still hold 90% of their reported dollar positions, on average unhedged by commercial obligation positions.

In crisis times, the US dollar price of gold ALWAYS seeks to balance the International Balance Sheet of the USA.

Therefore:

Take 90% of international US dollar debt less China and then add 50% of the US debt owned by China. Then divide that number by the ounces supposed to be owned by the US Treasury. The result is where gold wants to go.

In 1974 this gave me $900 gold. Now you do your homework, and submit your analysis to me. Do this, and I will give you Angels going to that price by a little known technique of Jesse Livermore that only works on gold after it has broken to a new high above all resistance.

Little by little I am passing on all that I have learned from Jesse through Bert to those that read every day in thanks for your support of me and mine.

Jim

Very strong signs of a bottom in gold, silver, gold miners both junior and seninor today

Will put up some charts showing why soon but would go long today. Consensus has become negative enough.

Gold February uptrend intact

No signs of correction. Still long

Jim Grant quote

"We never actually pay the rate of interest that we might be expected to pay -- the real rate of interest -- on Treasury debts. It's great for now that we're paying 2.5 percent or whatever on our public debt. But wouldn't it be better if there were an accurate price signal that was telling us that we're borrowing too much?"

GDX Support at 54 holding

Greatest Trader in the world Jesse Livermore quote:

"After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!"

Support levels tested and some broken

Good article to understand why silver is not overblown by long term standards

Pay particular attention to the rate of change chart
Link here

GDX Break or Bounce #2?

Watch for a bounce off of or break below trendline

Silver collapses past two support lines. Will it be survive primary support line?

Watch for possible reaction at primary trend line (blue line)

Food for thought in silver

17 days of gains wiped out in 4 days. This is a good lesson of why one must be extraordinarily cautious during parabolic phases if one is to lock in profits.

Gold reaching upper trading band

A convincing break above the upper band could signal a breakout of the trading range and a new plateau.

Silver's increasing upward trajectory- nearing parabolic intermediate top + caution for bulls

Silver is showing classic signs of a move that will soon end in a parabolic top, which will likely result in a long consolidation period, prior to resuming its long term ride. Note the increasing upward trajectory of the current astonishing move that has see it rise from $17 to $45 in 8 months. Generally the near vertical rise as seen in the last few days signify a nearing of the end of this explosive move. The longer this near parabolic phase continues, the longer silver will take to consolidate and re-fuel for its next leg up. So silver bulls should not be too exuberant with the current run, because silver MUST rest and recover sooner rather than later if it is to see a long term continuation of its bull market. However this current move is a microcosm of the greater bull market in silver. Once this bull market ends, silver will be jumping several dollars each day (as opposed to several dozen cents now) and will end well past $150 per ounce.

Crude at upper end of trading channel

Breakthrough above resistance could signal a run towards new highs

Updated charts + Gold breakout

Here are the GDX and GDXJ charts posted a couple of days ago, updated as of today. Note the strong breakout from their consolidation patterns.

The Gold chart too has shown a textbook breakout from its consolidation pattern.

Mr. Gold Speaks + Gold/Silver blastoff

1) Get ready for take off. All resistance levels on the juniors, seniors, and bullion have been shattered today, most likely signifying that the next blast off to new highs is here. Gold at record high!

2) Mr. Gold Jim Sinclair released the following report today.

Dear Friends,

I am writing to you from the Irving Farm Coffee and Internet cafe in Millerton NY. Our internet carrier went down today and is showing no promise of revival in the near future. I have a great coffee and a raisin bran muffin by my side so overall I have no grounds to complain.

Gold linked to the dollar today certainly has taken down $1444 for the count on three taps. That lights up Angel $1521 as the next to be captured.

Expect the Round Number Effect at $1500 for gold, but less severe than the battle at $1400. Angel $1650 is quickly coming into focus.

If we have learned one thing, it is not to get short term focused on this market. Stay focused on what is important and not the noise.

Think for a moment if Armstrong and Alf are right on gold. That would mean the following prices are coming:

$1650
$3000
$5000
$12,500

Those prices are possible because the balance sheets of the entire western world financial entities are based on false assumptions yielding valuation that pass auditing (FASB) but will never come to fruition. It is the mark to maturity method that not only used the BIS but other institutions that give comfort to the masses that are not looking at self protection here and now.

The financial system of the entire western world is FUBAR and there is no intention anywhere of fixing the problems at the level of its cause, OTC derivatives. The EU outlawed naked credit default swaps which is a clear comment on their ability to work if put under pressure. This is regardless of whether they were margin or naked in my opinion.

To say this is it is to be very late to the game.

Realize that the system has already failed.
Realize that there is no champion in a power position with the will to fix it.
Realize that even if there was a true fixer there are absolutely no tools to apply that would not in a short time cause more severe pressure than before applied.
Realize then that there is no PRACTICAL means to get the western world financial economy back on its feet
Realize that since the entire western world financial entities are based in sand there can be no sustainable economic recovery anywhere in that group.
Realize that a third war of any degree is madness.
Realize that our actions in the Middle East will cause increased hatred of the West.
Realize that the problems in the Middle East are not pro West or pro democracy.
Realize that gold is going to some degree make my long term price objective, given you ten years ago, look so low it will be silly.

Hold on to your insurance because you need it now. Pity the anti gold hedge funds short gold and gold shares based on, in my opinion, egomania, for they are very short lived now.

It is not a question of if we will prevail. We have already prevailed. Now our holdings are on the march to discount the hyper-inflation that is already written for history books to come.

Respect the fact that the same forces driving gold have historically driven equity market in past similar historical situations.

Respectfully yours,
Jim

Possible inverted head and shoulders in GDX

GDXJ resistance at 40.

Junior miners need a break above 40 to start the new leg up

Posco breakout

Breakout of multi-month triangle wedge

Further downside in USD likely

USD has broken to the downside of its downward wedge